Besides, the urbanization is also irreversible in China and the pollution
in large cities is becoming more and more severe. The main pollution
source is the exhaust of vehicles. It is reported that in the top ten polluted
cities, China has seven and Beijing is shamefully ranked the third.
Petroleum and Natural Gas Reserves is Relatively Indigent.
The
reserve and exploitation ratio of petroleum in China is only 15, much
lower than world’s averaged value of 40. Though the prospect of natural
gas is better because of the revealing of some new reserves recently and
planning to import natural gas from Hasakstan and Russia, the fraction of
natural gas in total energy mix will not increase greatly. The capacity of
the West to East natural gas transportation plan (4200 km long pipeline,
more than 100 billion yuan investment) is only 12 billion cubic meters per
year, which composes only 1.2% of the total energy mix. Now the natural
gas in energy mix is only 2 percent. The most optimistic estimation of this
number is 10 percent by the year 2030.
It is estimated that the annual production of petroleum in China in the
coming years will be 160 to 200 million tons and will not increase greatly.
But the demand for liquid fuel is increasing and causes the increase of
import of petroleum. In 1999, 40 million tons petroleum was imported. In
the year 2005 and 2010, 90 and 16 million tons are going to be imported.
These numbers are really astonishing, because on the one side, a lot of
valuable foreign currency will be consumed and makes our economy
subject to the impact of international oil price, and on the other side,
the situation is serious from the point of view of national energy security.
Furthermore, the import of oil has caused another problem. The
business-as-usual refinery process and equipment in China are not suitable
for the refinery of cheap, high sulfur content raw oil, which results the
produced gasoline and diesel products are too high in sulfur content
compared with the international standard. It could cost hundred billion of
investment to retrofit the existing refinery process and equipment.
Renewable Energy Could Compose Only a Small Fraction in the
Entire Energy Mix.
In China, the renewable energy such as wind, solar
and biomass energy should be emphasized to develop. However, it can not
compose a great fraction in the entire energy mix. The most optimistic
estimation will be 10 percent in the future.
Therefore, considering the reality of China, under the condition of
coal as the main primary energy, it is an important strategic problem to
develop the sustainable integrated energy system of resources, energy and
environment. The key point is how to make best and cleanest use of coal
by integration of different industries in China.
Polygeneration Based on Coal Gasification will be the New Trend
for World Energy Utilization.
From the point of view of the whole
world, industrial development and large-scale utilization of fossil fuels have
brought the home of human being, the earth, with deteriorated environment
and there continues to have even more serious challenge. Therefore, all
ISSN 0236-3941. Вестник МГТУ им. Н.Э. Баумана. Сер. “Машиностроение”. 2006. № 1 111
