Risk Assessment Method in Creating Space-Rocket Technology
Authors: Orlov A.I., Tsisarskiy A.D. | Published: 12.04.2017 |
Published in issue: #2(113)/2017 | |
Category: Mechanical Engineering and Machine Science | Chapter: Product Quality Management. Standardization. Organization of Production | |
Keywords: risk, assessment, modeling, projects, space-rocket technology, probability, expert procedures |
The article focuses on the additive-multiplicative model of project risk assessment. The model was developed by the authors. In the two-level scheme on the lower level the risk assessments are combined additively, whereas on the upper level they are combined multiplicatively. The additive-multiplicative model is used for the risk assessment of space-rocket technology projects. We specified 44 risks on the lower level and 8 risks on the upper level. The study gives some illustrative examples.
References
[1] Vyzovy innovatsionnogo razvitiya. Strategiya innovatsionnogo razvitiya RF na period do 2020 goda "Innovatsionnaya Rossiya-2020" [Innovative development challenges. In: RF Innovative development strategy in period till 2020 "Innovative Russia 2020"]. Moscow, Minekonomrazvitiya Publ., 2010, pp. 5-7.
[2] Raykunov M., ed. Ekonomika razvitiya kosmicheskoy deyatel’nosti [Development of space activity economics]. Moscow, Fizmatlit Publ., 2013. 367 p.
[3] Khrustalev E.Yu., Khrustalev O.E. Modeling of life cycle of the program of creation of the knowledge-intensive production. Ekonomicheskiy analiz: teoriya i praktika [Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice], 2012, no. 16 (271), pp. 2-12 (in Russ.).
[4] Grachev I.D., Fionov A.S. Development of technology of adaptive management of project of creation, operation and utilization of space rocket technology. Natsional’nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost’ [National Interests: Priorities and Security], 2012, no. 42 (183), pp. 2-14 (in Russ.).
[5] Tsisarskiy A.D. Increase of efficiency of implementation of projects on creation of perspective samples of missile and space equipment on basis of requirements engineering concept. Natsional’nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost’ [National Interests: Priorities and Security], 2013, no. 31 (220), pp. 25-29 (in Russ.).
[6] Orlov A.I., Tsisarskiy A.D. Features of risk assessment to create rocket and space technology. Natsional’nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost’ [National Interests: Priorities and Security], 2013, no. 43 (232), pp. 37-46 (in Russ.).
[7] Orlov A.I. Additive-multiplicative model for risk estimation in the production of rocket and space technics. Nauchnyy zhurnal KubGAU [Scientific Journal of KubSAU], 2014, no. 102, pp. 78-111. Available at: http://ej.kubagro.ru/2014/08/pdf/04.pdf
[8] Orlov A.I., Tsisarskiy A.D. Additive-multiplicative model of risk evaluation and its application in process of developing innovative-investment projects of space-rocket technique creation. Problemy upravleniya bezopasnost’yu slozhnykh sistem: Trudy XXI Mezhdunarodnoy kon-ferentsii [Problems of complicated system security management: Proc. XXI Int. Conf.]. Moscow, RSUH Publ., 2013, pp. 394-398.
[9] Orlov A.I., Tsisarskiy A.D. Special aspects risk evaluation in process of realization innovative-investment projects in space sector. Aktual’nye problemy rossiyskoy kosmonavtiki. Materi-aly XXXVIII Akademicheskikh chteniy po kosmonavtike [Topical issues of Russian cosmonautics. Proc. XXXVIII Academic readings on cosmonautics]. Moscow, RAS committee on scientific heritage development of space pioneers, 2014, pp. 210-210 (in Russ.).
[10] Orlov A.I. Organizatsionno-ekonomicheskoe modelirovanie. Ch. 2. Ekspertnye otsenki [Business modelling. P. 2. Expert estimate]. Moscow, Bauman MSTU Publ., 2011. 486 p.
[11] Zade L.A. Ponyatie lingvisticheskoy peremennoy i ego primenenie k prinyatiyu priblizhennykh resheniy [Concept of linguistic variable and its application in making approximate decisions]. Moscow, Mir Publ., 1976. 165 p.
[12] Orlov A.I. Teoriya prinyatiya resheniy [Decision making theory]. Moscow, Ekzamen Publ., 2006. 576 p.
[13] Lyndina M.I., Orlov A.I. Mathematical theory of ratings. Nauchnyy zhurnal KubGAU [Scientific Journal of KubSAU], 2015, no. 114, pp. 1-26 (in Russ.). Available at: http://ej.kubagro.ru/2015/10/pdf/01.pdf
[14] Khrustalev S.A., Orlov A.I., Sharov V.D. Matematicheskie metody otsenki effektivnosti upravlencheskikh resheniy. Zavodskaya laboratoriya. Diagnostika materialov [Industrial Laboratory. Materials Diagnostics], 2013, vol. 79, no. 11, pp. 67-72 (in Russ.).