On the Methodology of Forecasting Input Flow Elements for Industrial Enterprise

Theoretical foundations of applying the adaptive models for forecasting the time series are stated. A technique of using the spectral analysis for determination of Box-Jenkins model parameters and results of the above technique application to identify these parameters in forecasting the raw material market prices in Russia, and other parameters, analysed by a logistic service of a machine-building plant, is given. A conclusion is made on the suitability of this technique to identify the Box-Jenkins model parameters, and of the model itself - to make a short-term forecast of input flow parameters for an industrial enterprise.